Alan:"No system is perfect. Refusing to recognize this fact, the GOP's insistence on perfection has become the cornerstone of American conservatism's pending collapse. From now on, there will be ever more Obamacare "success stories," and ever fewer Obamacare horror stories (which is not to say they horror stories do not exist).
It is impossible to predict any "bill of particulars" but I would happily wager even money that the trajectory of Obamacare will be steeply ascendant in the hundred days prior to next November's elections. However rationalized, The Republican Party is mired in existential crisis."
It is impossible to predict any "bill of particulars" but I would happily wager even money that the trajectory of Obamacare will be steeply ascendant in the hundred days prior to next November's elections. However rationalized, The Republican Party is mired in existential crisis."
Greg Sargent, December 12, 2013
The GOP narrative for 2014 rests on the idea that Dem lawmakers and candidates are scurrying away from Obama and his signature domestic achievement. The goal: To create an atmosphere of panic and chaos around Obamacare, to discourage enrollment in hopes of making the law fail and to bait Dems into abandoning it, boosting its unpopularity and making it more of an albatross.
But now top Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg – having just done extensive polling in 86 competitive House districts — is advising Dems they should go on offense over the Affordable Care Act. The key finding: Even though voters in the battlegrounds have extreme doubts about the law, they still prefer implementing it to the GOP stance of repeal. And after a month of crushingly awful press for Obamacare, opinions on this matter in the battlegrounds have barely budged since October.
Dem pollster Stan Greenberg will roll out the new polling on a conference call with reporters later this morning. The poll — sponsored by Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund and Democracy Corps – was conducted in 50 GOP-held districts and 36 Dem-held districts from December 3-8, right after the administration announced its fix to the website. The key findings:
* Offered a straight choice between “implementing and fixing” the health law and “repealing and replacing” it, voters in these 86 districts prefer “implementing and fixing” by five points, 49-44. That’s only a slight difference from October, when implement and fix led by seven, 51-44.
* Implement and fix is preferred, even though the poll also finds widespread skepticism remains about seeing the law’s benefits. Only 33 percent of these battleground voters say the law will make things better for them, versus 46 percent who say it will make things harder, leaving a sizable chunk uncertain.
Greenberg tells me that all of this indicates that skepticism of the law does not necessarily translate into support for the GOP repeal stance — or GOP gains – and so Dems should not let that skepticism divide them.
“For sure, the rollout mess hurt the president and shifted the focus away from the hated Republican Congress,” he says. “But in the battlegrounds, the voters are split down the middle. This is not a wedge issue. Voters still want to implement and fix. Democrats can, and should, engage on health care.”
Indeed, the poll finds that significant majorities of core Democratic groups that are growing as a share of the electorate remain behind the law — another reason not to let Republicans use it as a wedge:
* Among members of the Rising American Electorate (unmarried women, young voters, and minorities) in the 86 battleground districts, “implement and fix” holds a 23-point lead over “repeal and replace,” 58-35. Also, these groups are significantly more convinced than voters overall that the law will make things better rather than make things harder: They believe this by 46-35.
“Despite all the noise over implementation, our polling shows that it remains popular among members of the Rising American Electorate,” says Page Gardner, president of the Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund. “They realize that the law will improve their lives. These often economically vulnerable Americans make up nearly 54 percent of the voting age population, and politicians who ignore their issues do so at their peril.”
Later today, Greenberg will explain in more detail what all of this means for 2014. Stay tuned.