Who Is The Best Forecaster Of Them All? (The Economist)

"The only reliable method is to conduct a forecasting tournament in which independent judges ask all participants to make the same forecasts in the same timeframes. And forecasts must be expressed numerically, so there can be no hiding behind vague verbiage. Words like "may" or "possible" can mean anything from probabilities as low as 0.001% to as high as 60% or 70%. But 80% always and only means 80%. In the late 1980s one of us (Philip Tetlock) launched such a tournament. It involved 284 economists, political scientists, intelligence analysts and journalists and collected almost 28,000 predictions. The results were startling." The Economist.

Meet the best forecaster: The "Good Judgment Project." It's a fitting name. Michael Horowitz in The Washington Post.

Who Is The Best Forecaster Of Them All? (The Economist)

Trending Articles

Practice Sheet of Right form of verbs for HSC Students

Download: FK ft Shenky – Nakuyewa ”Prod by: Shenky”

How to win at Markstrat (Markstrat Tips and Tricks) – Vodites

Ominde Commission Report and Recommendations – Ominde Report of 1964

Bureau of Internal Revenue: Regional Offices (Directory)

GO 53 on Enhancement of Ex-gratia upto 5 Lakhs Toddy Tappers in Telangana

Cakewalk CA-2A Leveling Amplifier v2.0.1.97 WiN, v2.0.1.96 OSX Incl Keygen

Mp3 Download: Mdu - Kunjenjenjena

How the kill the job , when DTP request running for long hours.

Microsoft Intune から展開しているアプリのアップデートについて

18-year-old girl was beaten for half an hour by two Northampton men in 'an...

Car crash in Dunton Bassett leaves driver in critical condition

Macky 2, Two Others In Road Accident

Application log 00000000000000089514: Could not convert queue DLVST90CLNT

Detroit mafia: D’Anna Brothers agree to plea deal

Delivery block field greyed out using VA02

Muloraki Au

【個人撮影】スマホのプライベート映像♪「中に出さないで///」カラオケ屋での生ハメ撮りが流出ｗ【リベンジポルノ】＠PornHub

BREAKING NEWS: Diamond Platnumz Is Reported Dead After Ghastly Car Accident

FIAT 500 B0111 B0112